Download e-book for kindle: A history of econometrics by Roy J Epstein

By Roy J Epstein

ISBN-10: 0444702679

ISBN-13: 9780444702678

This comparative old learn of econometrics specializes in the advance of econometric tools and their software to macroeconomics. The research covers the origins of contemporary econometrics within the united states and Europe through the 1920's and 30's, the increase of `structural estimation' within the 1940's and 50's because the dominant study paradigm, and the concern of the massive macroeconomic types within the 1970's and 80's. The thoroughly unique characteristic of this paintings is using formerly unknown manuscript fabric from the files of the Cowles fee and different collections. The background so developed exhibits that fresh debates over method are incomplete with no figuring out the various deep criticisms that have been first raised via the earliest researchers within the box

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After this time he had no further contacts with the econometricians. Sewall Wright and Schultz soon became acquainted on the Chicago faculty and they discussed the approach on many occasions. 27 Schultz apparently had lost interest in empirical studies of supply and no other econometrician followed up on Wright's example. " At bottom, it was motivated by the question of whether a set of variables had a causal structure that could be determined from a matrix of simple correlation coefficients. Path analysis generalized the idea that simple correlations need not imply causality but could merely indicate the common effect of a third variable.

As it turned out, Frisch's own study of the potato market included in (1934) suffered from an extraordinary degree of intercorrelation in the vari­ ables so that the assumption of multilinearity was not unreasonable. He related price to a variety of "quality" measures including size, color, shape, bruises, cuts, and scale (quantity data was unavailable). The best regres­ sion explained price as a function of size and color. The addition of any other variable indicated near "multilinearity," presumably due to a second relationship between the non-price factors.

The model he eventually pre­ sented was not derived from a prior economic theory but rather defined his own theory based on an extensive interrogation of the data. Tinbergen's work created a sensation within the economics profession. Complete macrodynamic systems were much more controversial than any of the demand studies promoted a decade earlier. Discussion of his partic­ ular results proved to be insignificant compared to the hot debates that commenced immediately over the conceptual foundations of the econo­ metric approach itself.

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A history of econometrics by Roy J Epstein

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